Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is expected by majority of Nigerians to win the 2023 presidential election for several reasons.
He is the most qualified, considering his track record of performance and popularity, coupled with his political sagacity and widespread tentacles in terms of his political structure, cutting across the length and breadth of Nigeria.
He is the candidate to beat by every measurable standard.
No doubt about that.
The Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) will try as much as they can to slug it out with the APC in the swing states in the North-East and the North-West with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar flying the flag of the party in 2023.
That is where the real battle is going to take place.
The issue of religion is going to play a major role in the North-East and the North-West as it remains the key factor over there.
For the APC, the dilemma in deciding who becomes the Vice-Presidential Candidate to pair with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is an issue that the national leadership of the party will have to give a serious thought and very critical consideration, and arrive at the best possible decision, with focus on victory for the party in the swing states, over and above every other consideration.
It is expected that the popularity of President Muhammadu Buhari amongst his people in the far north should play an important role in garnering the votes of the people for the ruling party.
In the North-Central, Sen Bukola Saraki will do all he can to deliver Kwara State for the PDP.
The PDP will be expecting that much from him.
The PDP will also be banking on Gov. Ortom, to deliver Benue State as well.
In Benue State, the influence of Sen George Akume, a former governor of the state will likely not make things easy for Gov. Ortom though, and that is something to watch out for, if my permutation about any possible upset is anything to go by.
The remaining three (3) States in the North-Central – Nassarawa, Plateau, and Kogi states are already in the kitty for the APC, and of course the Federal Capital Territory is already a conquered territory for the APC.
In the South-West, it’s a no go area for the PDP as it is completely for the APC. It is where the APC has its total grip with the JAGABAN of Borgu totally in charge.
Gov. Nyesom Wike, the executive governor of Rivers State will take it upon himself to cover grounds for the PDP in the South-South to prove his worth and show his capacity.
As a matter of fact, the PDP will be hoping to score a big one in the South-South with Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta, and Bayelsa states.
The only hope for the APC in Rivers State is the ability and the capacity of the Most Distinguished Senator Magnus Ngei Abe to grab significant votes for the APC.
In Delta and Bayelsa states, the Deputy Senate President, Barr Ovie Omo-Agege is expected to work very hard and make a statement as the gubernatorial candidate of the APC in that state, as well as being the Deputy President of the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
That is a huge value and political capital for himself and the APC.
I really don’t understand what former governor Timipre Sylva of Bayelsa State and the immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources is up to with his body language, right from the time leading up to the Special Convention of the APC till this moment.
He has been cold and his lukewarm attitude of late is really something l can’t say much about in terms of what to expect from him.
Gov. Ayade of Cross Rivers State is expected to hold his own in Cross River State, same way Com. Adams Oshiomhole is expected to put whatever differences he has with Gov Obaseki aside and work with the governor to secure Edo State for the APC.
His Excellency, Prof Ben Ayade – the Executive Governor of Cross River State must work the talk in his state in the coming elections and speak less grammar this time around.
Interestingly, in the whole of the South-South, it was only Cross River State that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Presidential Flag-Bearer of the APC paid a visit before and after the Special Convention.
That is a huge plus that should serve as a major boost to His Excellency and his supporters, as well as the faithful of the APC in Cross River State. A lot is expected from that end.
In the South-East, the votes will mainly be divided among Labour Party, the APC and the PDP.
The Labour Party will be in the mix because of the Peter Obi factor.
The APC will fight a battle for her survival in the South-East, a battle if won, will re-launch the party back to the hearts of the people of the South-East region with Imo and Ebonyi states already being controlled by Gov. Hope Uzodinma and Gov. David Umahi – both of the APC.
With Imo and Ebonyi states already on the Progressive side, the potential of the APC winning more states should be put on the front burner in the planning process by the handlers of the party at the top.
Another factor that will decide the votes is the sentimental voting pattern of the people from that region worsened by the belief that the APC is an “enemy party,” except some very strategic moves is embarked upon by the APC, which is most likely to be the situation.
In all, the APC has a lot of positives to bank on generally, especially with the number of states under her control from the states seen as the battle ground in the far northern part of the country.
There is also the factor of the incumbent, talking about the fact that the party is in charge of the government at the centre with President Muhammadu Buhari at the helms of affairs.
A lot of goodwill is expected to transform into votes for the APC as a result of the power and influence of the incumbent.
Interesting times lie ahead as there is still enough time for a lot to happen and decide the possible direction and outcome of what I describe as the election for the soul of Nigeria.
* Vincent Gbosi writes from Port Harcourt*
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