Expectations Of The Rivers Guber Polls

The atmosphere is quite tense and expectations high as March 18, 2023 approaches when voters in Rivers State will file out to cast the vote that will determine who will succeed the incumbent governor, Chief Nyesom Wike, come May 29, 2023. The violence that preceded the presidential and national assembly elections on February 25 in the state and the compromises that altered the outcomes of the elections have combined to raise the stakes around the March 18 elections.
Though there are 18 candidates, contesting the election, the real contest is among five frontrunners: Siminalayi Joseph Fubara, the candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Tonye Cole of the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), Magnus Ngei Abe of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Dumo Lulu-Briggs of Accord and Mrs. Beatrice Itubo of Labour Party. Dr. Dawari George of Action Alliance and Sobomabo Jackrich had also shown sparks during the electioneering.
Though the incumbent governor, Chief Nyesom Wike, is not contesting the election, he has demonstrated more than enough passing interest in the contest; and his actions and policies concerning the election have further fuelled the tension and grit in the atmosphere. The Executive Orders 21 and 22 that he made just as the political parties got about kicking off their rallies almost stifled the opposition as they made it difficult for the parties to hold rallies in public places and make effective use of their secretariats.
Not done with the official clampdown on the parties, there were coordinated attacks on opposition candidates in the local government areas where they had gone to campaign. For instance, Lulu-Briggs campaign train was attacked in Etche and Omuma; Abe’s convoys were stopped and attacked in Oyigbo, Akinima and Port Harcourt; the campaign rally of Tonye Cole was bombed in Port Harcourt and his campaign stands at Opobo destroyed. There was also a case where PDP members were caught as they attacked a rally of the APC in Eleme Local Government Area.
The violence was not restricted to candidates of the opposition parties. One after the other, members of the ruling PDP that supported the presidential candidate of the party against the stance of the governor had their homes and business attacked and vandalized.
Senator Lee Maeba for instance had his home in GRA broken into and the cars in his parking lot vandalized. Just about then, the governor revoked the certificate of occupancy of his landed property in Port Harcourt.
Unknown gunmen threw dynamites at the complex housing the radio and television stations owned by Chinyere Igwe, a member of the House of Representatives. A few days after, he was intercepted and arrested by the police while he conveyed money to deliver to the local government area coordinators of the Atiku Abubakar Campaign Council. A few months earlier, his filling station business premises were sealed by the state government.
A former Commissioner for Water Resources, Dr. Tamunosisi Gogo-Jaja had his home in Port Harcourt bombed while he was home with his family. His vigilant security guards were however able to apprehend one of the attackers who turned out to be a member of the governor’s political organization, the GDI.
Former Minister of Transportation, Dr. Precious Sekibo, escaped death when his car was shot at when he went to find out who were destroying facilities being set up to host the PDP Presidential campaign rally in Port Harcourt. Similar attacks were extended to homes of Chief Glory Emeh and other PDP chieftains
It is expected that all the 200,000 special assistants on polling units that Governor Wike appointed late last year to work for the party during the elections will get to work in the March 18 election. This will pose a challenge to the opposition parties and candidates who would be hard put to provide resistance should it come to showing force.
Glitches in the use of the BVAS during presidential election had created room for suspicion and had called for extra vigilance in the coming elections. So, it might not only be the political parties and the candidates stepping out to ensure the votes count, voters would generally be stepping up their curiosity to ensure that results are uploaded real time and that all necessary materials are available.
With regard to the chances of the candidates in the election, several factors may come in to play. For Siminalayi Fubara, the candidate of the PDP, the incumbency factor will come strongly into play. Backed by the political machine of Governor Wike, Fubara, who hails from Opobo in the Rivers South-East Senatorial Zone, looks like the man to beat.
The results of the February 25 election in the state, in which the PDP won all but one of the National Assembly seats and the APC, which the governor supported won the presidential election is a report card that Fubara’s camp will be displaying to show that the election is for him to win. However the minority status of his home local government area, Opobo/Nkoro, could be an impediment to his smooth sail to victory. But one thing is sure his emergence as the candidate of the government party has effectively rallied support of the leadership of all the local government councils behind him. Even if he loses in other areas, he is very sure of winning Opobo/Nkoro. Another factor that Fubara would be flaunting is the fact that he comes from a senatorial zone that has not produced a governor of the state.
Fubara has well funded structures in place in all the local government areas of the state and this may well play in his favour during the election. Whether for good or for bad, the PDP candidate will inherit the goodwill or ill will of Wike, his godfather. The outgoing governor had touched many local areas with road projects and this may sway support for Fubara. But the opposite will be case for communities and people who feel the outgoing governor had treated them badly.
Another major candidate is Tonye Cole of the APC. Son of a prominent diplomat and administrator, Cole is seen as urbane, gentle and approachable. His chances are predicated on the fact that he belongs to the main opposition party and that he comes from the Kalabari area, which has not produced a governor of the state since its creation. Besides, he is not a regular face in the politics of the state and has therefore not been tarred by the brush that is often used in painting politicians. So, many voters would expect that he would make a huge difference in his approach to governance.
If Cole is able to get Lulu-Briggs, George and Jackrich to withdraw for him before Election Day, it could work well for him to get the bloc votes of the Kalabari local government areas. His minuses include the fact that he had not spent long enough time in the state to have a strong base of local supporters.
Senator Abe is one of the longest running candidates in the race having shown interest in being governor since 2013 when he followed the former governor, Rotimi Amaechi to APC. He felt disappointed when Amaechi ditched him in 2014 for Dr. Dakuku Peterside for the 2015. When he showed interest again in 2018 against the 2019 elections, Amaechi also bypassed him and settled or Cole. It was his protest against that choice that led to APC not being able to field any candidate for the 2019 general elections in Rivers State. Though he stayed back in the party, he eventually left in 2022 when it became clear to him that he would not win the party’s nomination. He moved over to the SDP where he was nominated the governorship candidate.
Abe is banking on the fact that his ethnic nationality, Ogoni has never produced a governor of the state and would be exploiting that sentiment to get the votes of those he thinks will be moved by equity to support an Ogoni candidate; and the bloc vote of the Ogoni people, one of the three major groups in the state. Having served in government and been around politics in the state for a fairly lo0ng time, Abe could be leveraging on his contacts across the zones and parties to win support for his election.
Lulu-Briggs is the candidate that has spent the longest time in the governorship race having shown interest in the governorship as far back as 2007. When in 2015, he failed to secure the nomination of the APC, he moved to Accord where he was offered the ticket but internal crises within the party ended with a court nullifying his candidacy
By the time of the party’s nomination in 2022, he had become well rooted in the party such that he easily won the ticket. Being a Port Harcourt Boy himself, Lulu-Briggs has a lot of friends and contacts in Rivers State that can aid his quest to be governor. Besides, he has a rich war chest of resources to fund his campaigns, being the son of one of the richest ever Rivers men, the late Chief Olu Lulu-Briggs.
Lulu-Briggs’ main challenge is the size of his party, Accord, whose structures are not well rooted across the state. He is practically personally running his campaigns with his funds and that presents a huge challenge to the successful execution of his aspiration. Besides, he comes from the Kalabari area where there are also five other strong candidates, which would likely share the bloc votes that the area could give to him.
The third force is the Labour Party candidate, Mrs. Itubo who though is from Abua/Odual in Rivers West will be riding on the crest of the Obidient Movement that supported the presidential candidate of the Labour Party on February 25 to fly in the March 18 governorship election. As the immediate past Chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress in Rivers State, Itubo was able to withstand the excessiveness of Governor Wike, which earned her the sobriquet of the Iron Lady. Given her strength of character and firmness, she could appeal to those who want change outside the traditional politicians for the governorship.
Outside the candidates, there is the factor of the Obidient Movement, which though has its roots in the Labour Party could direct its membership to vote any other candidate in the election. They played a deciding role in the Presidential election and can also do so in the governorship election.
There is also the factor of Governor Wike and his predecessor Rotimi Amaechi, who of recent have been trying to outplay each other to win the votes of non-indigenes, particularly the Igbo votes that are quite substantial in the state. Amaechi’s recent sudden return to the state created some excitement but immediately roused the long war between the former political allies. While Wike is backing Fubara, Amaechi is supporting Cole.
How far can the It-Is-Our-Turn syndrome play in determining the winner of the election? The Kalabari and the Ogoni, who form two of the three major ethnic groups in the state claim that 2023 is their entitlement having not produced the governor of the state since the old Rivers State was created in 1967. Both groups parade eminently qualified candidates, six from Kalabari and four from Ogoni out of the total of 18 candidates. The Kalabari candidates are Cole, Lulu-Briggs, George, Jackrich, Danagogo Wenike-Briggs of Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Tonte Ibraye of African Democratic Congress (ADC). The Ogoni candidates are Abe, Joseph Obele of AAC, Leesii Gborogbosi of APP and Leyii Kwane of Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).
While the Kalabari have produced deputy governors, speakers of the house of assembly and a chief judge of the state, the Ogoni have not had any of them head any of the three arms of the state government. This is the card the Ogoni are playing up to win the sympathy of voters on March 18.
Kalabari zone has three local government areas – Akuku-Toru, Asari-Toru and Degema. Together they form a voting bloc which if held together can go a long way in making a Kalabari governor. The failure of the candidates to unite and support one of them may torpedo this and expose them to dividing the votes that will come from the Kalabari zone except a last minute rapprochement is reached among them.
If the Kalabari candidates have the challenge of getting the big candidates to reach a common ground, that does not seem to be the case with the Ogoni. Even though the Ogoni have four candidates, Senator Abe has been able to tower above the rest and the sentiments appear to favour him. So, if Abe is able to cart home the bloc vote from the four local government areas of Ogoni, and wins votes from other areas, it could him in good stead.
But much more than the normal factors playing out on Election Day, the fears of violence hang in the air.