The complicated political re-alignments in Rivers State which created political fragility within the political landscape before and since the 2023 election, is now further heightened by the emergence of cult war in some parts of the state. On Saturday, May 6, 2023, two rival cult groups – the Greenlanders and Iceland engaged each other in a supremacy battle around the Ahoada axis of the East-West Road. The cult clash which led to the killing of three suspected cultists after a prolonged gun duel, is a traditional signature of violent politicians who induce and aid cultists to achieve political gains.
In April 2023, another five cultists were killed in a clash between two rival groups of Deygbam cult group around the Elechi Beach axis of Diobu in Port Harcourt.
Prior to the post-election cult related killings, between November and December 2022, similar incidents claimed the lives of nine people when two suspected rival cult groups clashed near an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp located inside the newly commissioned Ahoada campus of the Rivers State University (RSU) in Ahoada Town.
However, if antecedents of political fragilities that accompanies electoral processes in the state are anything to go by, the emerging cult war and other conflict profiles witnessed in the pre-election, election day and post-election regime may not be anything new to residents of Rivers state. The Centre for Democracy (CDD) in its report Election Violence Tracker Report released on March 18, 2023 listed Rivers State as one of the highly volatile states with “with the most recorded deaths” for election violence.
In 2015, findings from a commission of inquiry that set up by the state government to investigate election related killings between November 2014 and May 2015 reported that 19 people were killed monthly in election related violence. At the time of submitting its report the commission noted that 94 persons were killed “between November 15, 2014, and April 11, 2015.” Most of the killings according to the commission occurred in an election-day and post-election regime violence. The report which indicted top politicians as major sponsors of the gang violence, made far reaching recommendations to stem the tide.
In 2016, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was forced to suspend a crucial legislative re-run election after the exercise was marred by unprecedented violence. The electoral umpire described the actions of political thugs as “deviant behaviour.” and further declared that the re-run election was marred by “fatalities, kidnappings, and ballot snatching.” The violence claimed the lives of four soldiers and a Youth Corper who served as an INEC adhoc staff.
The 2023 electoral process ushered in an interesting vista of political realignments in Rivers State. The state has been in the grip of the People’s Democratic Party since 1999 at the return of civilian government. Although the All Progressives Congress (APC) briefly captured the state in 2014 when the then governor, Rt. Hon. Rotimi Chubuike Amaechi decamped left the PDP, the PDP reclaimed the state after the current governor won his first term in office. The position of the PDP was consolidated with another victory in 2019 and has remained so until the just concluded 2023 elections.
But in spite of the PDP holding power in the state, a lot has however changed since the conclusion of the 2023 election. The change which was induced by the fall-out from the PDP presidential primaries, is gradually re-defining politics of the state. The change also threatens the soul of the party in the state with many party bigwigs aligning their interest with the national headquarters against the governor Nyesom Wike. While the governor protested his loss of the presidential election by working against the party, those who maintained their loyalty with the national leadership also withdrew support from the party’s governorship candidate.
Like the PDP, key political actors within the APC in the state also worked against the APC presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Although the challenge of the APC has its root in the protracted conflict amongst party bigwigs in the state, it however escalated with the outcome of the party’s presidential primaries where the leader of the party in the state. Rotimi Amaechi emerged the first runner-up. Again, just like the PDP, while some party members refused to campaign for the presidential candidate Bola Tinubu others however aligned themselves with the party’s presidential candidate and that of the Labour Party.
At the national level, the APC National Legal Adviser Mr Henry Bello also withdrew from the party’s petition against the PDP at the governorship election tribunal last week. There are talks that the withdrawal of the national legal adviser from the petition is part of a deal between the APC and governor Wike, as the governor’s reward, for his technical assistance to the APC presidential candidate. But former National Publicity Secretary of the defunct new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP) who is also a chieftain of the APC in the state, Chief Eze Chukwuemeka Eze in a statement said, “The surreptitious affair of Bello and Wike revealed a strong and deliberate attempt to hamper the steady progress recorded by the party and its candidate at the tribunal in a bid to subvert the wheel of justice.” Chief Eze who commended the national leadership of the APC for relieving Mr Bello of his role over his action, also called for further sanctions against him.
The APC in the state had repeatedly accused Mr. Tinubu and some APC stalwarts of undermining the Rivers State chapter of the APC as a result of their romance with the Rivers State governor. The APC presidential candidate who is now the president-elect and his lieutenants, made several visits to the state during and after the elections, without recourse to the state chapter of the APC. Political watchers interpreted the visits and the general attitude of the national leadership of the APC as a foretaste of the internal battle that may eventually consume the Rivers APC when Mr Tinubu takes the oath of office on May 29, 2023.
The evolution of multiple pre-election ambitions
The period also witnessed the evolution and launch of new ambitious interests, mainly within the state chapter of the APC. Notable political actors like Senator Magnus Abe, Dr. Dawari George and many others left the party to fly the flag of other political parties. Like a massive hurricane, there was also an unprecedented exodus of grassroot party members to the ruling PDP. Most of the movements which occurred from the Opobo/Nkoro axis and largely around the Ijaw ethnic nationalities were also instigated by mostly ethnic considerations due to the emergence of an Opobo-Ijaw son as the governorship candidate of the PDP. This is understandably so because of the 24-year wait by the Ijaws to occupy the brick house which used to be their traditional home. The Ijaws in the last 24 years have suffered political irrelevance, loss of social and cultural landmarks, underdevelopment and policy of structural exclusion. Within the period, they also lost their most prominent political leaders to the brutal hands of assassins.
The movements and cross-alignments to a large extent did not only weaken the claim of the APC to the Brick House, it further added to the toxicity of the electoral process in the state. Part of the toxicity also led to the emergence of draconian laws which led to unprecedented violence in many parts of the state. For instance in the weeks leading to the elections, the state grabbed negative headlines with targeted attacks against political parties by cultists who also act as political thugs. In many instances they violently disrupted opposition party campaigns and orchestrated clear threats to life.
The disruptions were anchored on the strength of ‘Executive Orders’ promulgated by the Rivers State government few months to the elections. The executive orders mandated political parties in the state to seek approval from the state government before they can hold political rallies in the state. The executive orders which are known as ‘Orders 21 and 22,’ also mandated political parties to relocate their campaign offices from residential areas.
A report published by the Fund for Peace and The Foundation for Partnerships Initiatives in the Niger Delta (PIND) in May 2016, on election related cultism induced violence, reported that “during the three months (Dec-Feb) prior to the March 16 legislative elections, cult related violence resulted in over 100 fatalities across the state. The report which was titled ‘Growing Insecurity in Rivers State: Impacts of Legislative Re-Run Elections’ stated that in December 2015, over a dozen communities were reportedly attacked by cultists resulting in over 17 fatalities in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, while clashes between rival Icelanders and Degbam cult groups caused three fatalities in Ikwerre. The report further stated that “in January 2016, over 20 people were reportedly killed in series of cult violence-related incidents in Ahoada East, Ahoada, West, Obio/Akpor and Ikwerre LGAs” and another “three fatalities when security agents raided the home of an ex-militant leader.”
In response to the violence the Rivers State government set up a ‘Judicial Commission of Inquiry to investigate the killings and other violent acts/matters that occurred during the December 10, 2016 rerun/supplementary elections to elect members of the National Assembly and House of Assembly in Rivers State.’
The Inspector of General of Police also set up a joint investigative panel to investigate the violence that accompanied the elections. However a Federal High Court in Abuja, in a suit filed by the Rivers State government, which challenged the authority of the IGP, declared as illegal, the Special Joint Investigative Panel constituted by the IGP, to uncover those behind the violence.
In 2019, a similar tide was repeated after the state recorded six deaths including a Nigerian army lieutenant.
The Courts as new battleground
The post-election fragility in 2023 has also seen a shift to the courts. The Rivers State governorship and legislative election petition tribunal was relocated from Port Harcourt to Abuja due to concerns growing insecurity. Prior to the shift, there were palpable threats of possible violence as members of the PDP routinely barricaded the entrance to the office of the Independent National Electoral Commission, in Rivers State in protest.
The PDP insisted that they should be granted a joint observer status to enable them simultaneously inspect all election materials used for the conduct of the 2023 elections in the state. The request meant that the PDP will jointly inspect the materials with the APC which had been granted the permission by the tribunal to inspect the materials. Before the protest, Lawyers representing the APC were arrested and later released by the Police after what the police described as ‘mistaken identity.’
Away from the tribunal is another brewing legal crisis. A Federal High Court in Port Harcourt, on May 17, 2023, issued a bench warrant against Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi; Mr Tonye Cole, the Rivers State governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC); and others. The court issued the bench warrant against the entities in a criminal suit filed by the state government. The court said the bench warrant was necessitated by the failure of the defendants to appear before it. The Rivers State government filed the fresh criminal law suit against the defendants, on allegations of misappropriation of public funds and corruption in the purchase of government assets between 2007 and 2015 when Mr Amaechi was governor of the state.
The lawsuit came on the heels of the report submitted by the panel of inquiry set up by the Rivers State government in 2022, to probe Mr Amaechi over an alleged withdrawal of N96 billion from the state treasury during his tenure as governor. The panel which also investigated the sale of assets by the former governor indicted Sahara Energy for its role in the purchase of the assets.
Interestingly, the rivers state government had in October 2022 withdrawn a similar suit against Mr Amaechi and Tonye Cole. Many political watchers have however described the fresh charges as a ploy to force Mr Tonye Cole to discontinue his case against the victory of the PDP at the Election Petition Tribunal.
Uncertain future of key political actors in the state
Beyond the cult wars and legal battles, the fate of most of the key political actors which hangs in the balance, in their various parties are also contributing to the tension in the political landscape. There are hush speculations about a possible implosion that may ravage the state in the days to come, if speculations and permutations are anything to go by. While some sources close to key political actors speculate possible transitions of their principals to new political parties, others say it is too early to draw conclusions.
Gov. Nyesom Wike
For instance, some leaders of the Grassroot Development Initiative (GDI), informed this reporter that the governor does not intend to leave the PDP for anyone. They argued that the governor would rather destroy the party than to just walk away. However, two Councillors disclosed that there are actual talks about the governor decamping to the APC within the governor’s inner circle. They said the governor is however waiting for the outcome of the various cases at the governorship and presidential tribunals.
One of the councillors from Ikwerre LGA who preferred not to be named stated that the governor will most likely leave the PDP for the APC. He said “the signs are eminent and the governor’s body language clearly shows that he is preparing the ground for his eventual departure from the party.” He also informed that such a move will not be popular with most bigwigs of the party. According to him, the governor did not manage his politics very well with the national leadership of the party. He also argued that even if Mr Tinubu eventually rewards the governor for his support, such reward may not necessarily trickle down to his followers. On what becomes of Wike in view of his wrangling with the national leadership of the party, the source said “if you observe the national leadership is using diplomacy on him; they are waiting for him to finish his tenure before moving against him. They are aware that if they move against him now, he still has many followers because of the money he controls as governor and that may not be too good for the party.”
However, another serving councillor in Port Harcourt City Local Government Area informed that there is an uncertainty on the governor’s next political move. He said the governor has kept everything to himself and is not giving information to most of his key allies on the expectations from his alliance with the APC. He said: “Since after the election, the governor has not been talking. Even his G-5 friends have been silent. So, nobody knows what’s on his mind. He is not saying anything even those who are very close to him are complaining because he’s not telling them anything.”
When asked if the governor’s refusal to disclose his plans has to do with fear of betrayal, the councillor said: “It is possible. Remember what happened when he instructed us to mobilize for the APC; it was supposed to be coded. But even before we started the mobilization, the news was already everywhere.”
He however said everything will become clearer after the swearing in on “May 29.”
But, a former State Secretary of the PDP disclosed that talks about the governor’s movement to the APC “is neither here nor there.” He argued that before the governor can make such a move “the APC must first fix the Amaechi factor within the Rivers APC.” He said “Tinubu and the APC faction fighting Amaechi will have to ensure that Amaechi is eased out in order to allow Wike to take over the party structure.” According to him, until that is done, such a plan will be herculean because of the “unwelcoming attitude of some Tinubu’s aides who are not comfortable with Mr Project’s’ towering influence.” He however stated that “everything is on the table especially if Tinubu wins at the tribunal.”
All the sources who spoke to this correspondent also informed that the governor however envisages an impending onslaught by the national leadership of the PDP against his strangle hold of the party in the state if Atiku wins at the presidential tribunal.
Rt. Hon Rotimi Amaechi
The former Minister of Transportation was less visible during the presidential campaigns. Many had thought that Mr Amaechi who was the first runner-up at the APC presidential party primaries, would be given a prominent role by the All Progressives Congress Presidential Campaign Council (APC-PCC). Mr Amaechi, a two-time Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Organisation (APC-PCO) between 2015 and 2019, was however named Special Adviser on Infrastructure of the PCC for the 2023 presidential election. His diminished visibility and lack of strong reference by the party’s presidential candidate even on his several visits to Rivers State, led to multiple interpretations that the two may be at cross-purposes.
The interpretations gained further prominence, when the National Protocol Director of the APC-PCC, Chief Tony Okocha, publicly claimed that the former Minister of Transportation was no longer the leader of the APC in the state. Tony Okocha who was a former Chief of Staff to Amaechi, accused the former governor of anti-party activities. Okocha had claimed that on the eve of the presidential election, Mr Amaechi ordered his supporters to vote for the presidential candidate of the PDP. He said, “A day to the presidential election, he ordered his supporters to go and vote for the presidential candidate of the PDP. And himself, we have it on record that he voted for the candidate of the PDP, Atiku.” Although Okocha’s position was dismissed by the leadership of the party in the state, the silence of the national leadership of the APC on the cold war, has further given credence to Mr Amaechi’s uncertain future in the party in post-Buhari regime.
In a chat with the State Publicity Secretary of the APC, Mr Darlingron Nwauju, on the future of Mr Amaechi in the party, Nwauju said Amaechi as one of the founders of the party cannot be pushed out of the party by anybody. He stated that Mr Amaechi has also not told anybody that he’s leaving the APC and that “his body language does not suggest so.” On the battle for the soul of the APC in the state and the possible take-over of the party by the governor Nyesom Wike, who is in strong political romance with the President-elect, Nwauju said, “I know that Nigerians are already aware of what is going on in Rivers State. The fact that somebody once described the APC as a cancer…and today you’re romancing with the cancer; we have no problem with that.
“The only problem the person has after condemning the APC is a crisis of integrity. What will be the public perception of that person? It shows you that the person is inconsistent. So, it is his problem; it is an image crisis for him, not for us.”
Commenting on the possible return of Mr Amaechi to the PDP if Mr Wike does otherwise to the APC, Mr Nwauju said, “Recall that Amaechi was pushed out of the PDP in 2014 after the party structure was taken from him. So, he cannot now wake up to go back to the PDP.”
On the seeming or looming loss of the state party structure as was the case in 2015 and the implications on the political future of Mr Amaechi, the publicity secretary said, “The truth is that if I now answer you by saying it is the same thing that is playing out, then you will expect that the next answer should be that, we will move if he is expelled or he is suspended. I’m not a Nostradamus for me to predict that my principal will be expelled or suspended from the APC. So, since I’m not a Nostradamus, I cannot predict or I cannot tell you that we’re going to leave the APC. For now, I’m sure that we are members of the APC.
“When the APC came to the Niger Delta, everybody said it was an Islamization agenda and he said no, that he has interacted with the then General Buhari, and the man never discussed with him about an islamization of Nigeria. And so a lot of our people who embrace the APC were killed because of Amaechi. You will recall our campaigns at Okrika, we were shot at some persons including a policeman died. So, on the day that Buhari and including the President-elect in September of 2014 came to Rivers State, he was stoned at the Port Harcourt Airport by the same persons who are now trying to hobnob and romance with the APC. So, you see how people can be inconsistent. “So what I’m trying to say is that Amaechi has laboured to bring the APC into Rivers State and into the South-South, and so, if he will be rewarded with whatever, we leave that to God. But, as at today, I can tell for sure that we have not contemplated, he has not told us that we’re going to leave our party; it is our party.”
Describing Wike as a possible tenant, he said, “The landlord does not need to argue over the ownership of his property. It is the tenant who is trying to lay claim to that property that should now show us his C-of-O. There are people who laboured for the APC, to build the structures in Rivers State and in the South-South. Those are the landlords I’m referring to and if you’re going to pay them back in wickedness for their loyalty even when the APC was an unpopular brand and unacceptable, even against our own brother from the south-south who was a sitting president; there’s no argument.”
On the reasons for the seeming cold war between Mr Amaechi and the President-elect, Mr Nwauju stated that Mr. Tinubu’s alleged discriminatory behaviour against Amaechi is hinged on the decision of the former Transport Minister to contest for the party’s presidential ticket. “For me, the only possible reason I can point to is the fact because my principal aspired to be the flag bearer of the APC, because before that time there was no publicly known issues between Sen. Tinubu and Amaechi.”
Sen. Magnus Abe
Senator Magnus Abe left the APC to fly the flag of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) at the just concluded governorship election. His departure to the SDP was preceded by a bitter rivalry between him and the former Minister of transport Rotimi Amaechi. His fight against Amaechi is predicated on a number of multiple issue ranging from imposition of candidates and the general lack of internal party democracy within the APC in Rivers State. In 2019, their fight led to the disqualification of all APC candidates in the state by the courts.
However, although he eventually decamped from the APC, he still campaigned and worked for the presidential candidate of the APC whom he often describes as a worthy political ally. The former lawmaker, who also recently withdrew his petition against the victory of the PDP at the governorship election tribunal, has been serially described by some APC elements as a PDP mole. His decision to work for the presidential candidate of the APC and the withdrawal of his petition from the tribunal has however sparked conversations about a possible return to the APC after May 29. Part of the conversations has also revolved round an alleged deal between him, Wike and the President-elect. The deal according to political watchers, may have been brokered by Mr. Tinubu as part of compensation for Mr Wike’s support for the presidential candidate.
A return to the APC may however have a profound effect on the soul of the APC in the state, as it could revive the intractable conflict between him and Mr Amaechi who himself is also facing an uncertain political future.
Commenting on the developments, a former legislative aide to Senator Magnus Abe, Mr Friday Kennedy, stated that the political future of Sen. Abe will be determined by the interest of his followers and that of Rivers people at large. He said Abe’s decision to work for Mr Bola Ahmed Tinubu was informed by an age-long relationship they both shared. While dismissing the allegation of being a mole, Mr Kennedy stated that the “relationship between both men precedes politics.”
On Abe’s decision to withdraw his petition from the tribunal, he stated that the decision to withdraw the petition from the governorship election tribunal, was based on a pragmatic assessment of certain indicators which are informed by the need to move the state forward. He said the withdrawal was a collective decision taken by key members of Abe’s political family and reflection of the wishes of progressive Rivers people.
The key highlights of the realignments will however be tested after the governor would have left office and when Mr. Tinubu takes the oath of office on May 29, 2023. The fragility would also continue at least for the foreseeable future unless leaders of thought and critical stakeholders take steps to build a citizen led consensus that will determine the political future of the state.
The onus however lies on the incoming governor to lead the process of reconciliation. To do this he needs to first shrug off the burden of expectations tied to his emergence by the outgoing governor, who disenfranchised other aspirants to pave the way for his emergence as the party’s candidate and eventually the governor elect. The reconciliation should also involve truth telling and strong apology offered to citizens for the violent disruption of the electoral process in the state.
