Stakeholders Warn Of Job Losses, Monopoly Risk From Dangote’s CNG Truck Deployment

Concerns are mounting in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector over the potential fallout from the deployment of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) trucks by Dangote Refinery. Stakeholders have warned that while the initiative aligns with the global shift toward cleaner fuels, its execution could undermine livelihoods, threaten small businesses, and distort competition in the downstream petroleum industry.
In a report presented by Dr. Joseph Obele, stakeholders outlined far-reaching economic and social consequences that could follow Dangote’s direct distribution model. They argue that the approach, particularly the free deployment of CNG trucks, poses “an aggressive, ballistic approach to competition” that risks edging out thousands of existing operators.
One of the most immediate threats identified is to the estimated 60,000 diesel truck owners who could find themselves unable to compete with Dangote’s CNG trucks. This could render their fleets redundant, forcing many into bankruptcy.
In addition, about 120,000 drivers and conductors (truck boys) stand to lose their jobs if diesel trucks become dormant.
The deployment is also expected to hit diesel suppliers who currently service critical sectors such as telecommunications. With over 50,000 suppliers catering to telecom operators’ signal sites, stakeholders warn that as many as 150,000 jobs could disappear if Dangote Refinery bypasses them to supply operators directly.
Similar outcomes are predicted for diesel suppliers to banks, hotels, and office complexes, potentially wiping out thousands more jobs.
Over 200 private depots may face extinction, putting around 250,000 employees at risk, as Dangote’s direct-to-market model removes the need for marketers to lift products from depots.
Nigeria’s eight modular refineries, employing more than 16,000 people collectively, may also struggle to compete, with fears of closures if the market becomes monopolized.
When combined, the estimated losses across all sectors could exceed five million jobs, a prospect stakeholders say would inflict severe strain on Nigeria’s already fragile economy.
Stakeholders also caution that the free distribution of CNG trucks signals a drive toward monopoly. Should one player dominate the downstream sector, they warn, two major risks would emerge: higher product prices due to reduced competition, and a decline in innovation and investment as incentives for efficiency diminish.
“The deployment of CNG trucks in this manner raises a red flag,” the report states. “Healthy competition must be encouraged. A monopoly would not only squeeze out small operators but also hurt consumers in the long run.”
While acknowledging the benefits of transitioning to cleaner energy, stakeholders urge the government and regulators to ensure a balanced approach that protects vulnerable operators and sustains healthy competition.
“The energy sector can only thrive if the transition to CNG is inclusive and fair,” the report concludes. “Only then will all stakeholders from truck owners to depot operators and consumers reap the benefits of this shift.”